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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward pattern. It commonly serves as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our preseason predictions.

On paper, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who oversaw the biggest resurgence receives the prize. However, it creates an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring superior coaching or simply the biggest surprise.

But this year's race is distinctly unique. The group of contenders is remarkably talented. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with recent division champions fading and recent underperformers improving collectively. During an normal year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in this wild and fun season, he's facing several other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical vote could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent performance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that frees wide-open targets consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to conjure magic from nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost every decision – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the building with the level of expectations Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the top name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive wizard but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a ordinary year, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. But the current isn't a normal year!

The area where his candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. However Johnson comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has mastered the leadership aspects, which was not a given following his early public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and everything into sync.

After an initial strong start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking consistent ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller might have ended the season in October. Rather, it defined it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still